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AGI Futures
GovernanceSecurityFreedomBetter Governance

Digital Public Identity and Credentials

We can digitize services, but without secure digital identity rails we get fraud, exclusion, and high-friction enrollment across benefits, banking, healthcare, and work.

Priority68
Importance75
Neglected50
Tractability65

The Gap

What exists is brittle identity proofing, repeated account creation, weak authentication, and privacy risk from excessive data collection. What could exist is a digital public identity layer: privacy-preserving credentials, secure authentication, and interoperable verification that reduces fraud while expanding access.

The Stakes

Identity is a foundation layer. If it is weak, everything built on top becomes expensive: fraud, manual reviews, and exclusion errors. If it is strong and privacy-preserving, we unlock faster services, safer payments, and broader inclusion in the digital economy.

Headline evidence

  • •World Bank digital development analysis reports that in 2024, about 2.9 billion people still lacked access to “online digital ID” systems that enable secure remote authentication for online transactions. [1]
  • •The World Bank ID4D dataset estimates approximately 850 million people worldwide lack an official ID, and billions more lack digitally verifiable or online-usable digital identity. [2]
  • •NIST SP 800-63-4 provides technical requirements for identity proofing, authentication, and federation, explicitly covering government-facing digital identity assurance levels. [3]

Neglectedness

InevitableNeglected

Why it stays neglected

    Digital identity is politically sensitive and easily derailed by surveillance fears, vendor capture, or exclusion harms. Meanwhile, the “buyer” is split across agencies and sectors. The result is duplicated identity systems, fragmented standards, and weak interoperability.

Tractability

    The technical pieces are mature: cryptography, secure hardware, and standardized protocols. The frontier is product governance: designing identity systems that are usable, inclusive, and privacy-preserving while meeting fraud and security requirements. Startups can win by shipping interoperable components that governments can adopt incrementally.

Startup surfaces

  • •Privacy-preserving credential wallets and verifier infrastructure aligned to standards
  • •Fraud-resistant remote identity proofing and re-verification workflows
  • •Interoperability layers that unify fragmented agency identities without centralizing data
  • •Consent-based attribute sharing for age, residency, and eligibility verification
  • •Continuous risk scoring and adaptive authentication for high-risk transactions
Source Stack (3)
  • [1] World Bank (ID4D). Global progress in identification: findings from latest data (blog). (Oct 2025).
  • [2] World Bank (ID4D). ID4D Global Dataset (identity coverage estimates). (Accessed 2026).
  • [3] National Institute of Standards and Technology. Digital Identity Guidelines (SP 800-63-4, Final). (2025).

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