AGI Futures Forecasts
A layer for frontier judgment. Structuring predictions beyond simple binaries into rich probability distributions to navigate the AGI transition.
Condition
If alignment gets solved
Your Forecast
Condition
If autonomous laboratory systems are running closed-loop experiment cycles with under 10% human intervention in at least 20 venture-backed biotech labs by 2030
Your Forecast
Your Forecast
or
Will there be a terrorist attack materially aided by AI that kills 1,000,000+ people by 2040?
1 FORECASTS
Your Forecast
Condition
If there is a terrorist attack materially aided by AI that kills 1,000,000+ people by 2040
What will be the primary threat vector used?
2 FORECASTS
Your Forecast
Your Forecast
Condition
If AI-native tutoring becomes a standard weekly tool for at least 50% of public-school students in 5 or more U.S. states by 2030
Your Forecast
Condition
If general-purpose software agents can autonomously complete end-to-end pull request workflows in production codebases at near-senior-human quality by 2030
Your Forecast
Your Forecast
or