FAIRMARKETS AI GOVERNANCE LAB • COUNTERFACTUAL do(policy)Epistemic Firewall: Normative Value Sliders Never Mutate Objective Outcome Forecasts

Multidimensional Pareto Frontier & Policy Tradeoff Explorer

Evaluate four counterfactual October 2027 governance interventions (do(Policy)) across six civilizational objectives. Adjust your normative value weights on the left to rank policies by personal utility while inspecting objective Pareto dominance on the right.

1. Your Normative Value Weights (0–100)

Affects Utility Score Only
Weight: 90

Probability of avoiding catastrophic misalignment, bioweapon release, or Consensus-1 style human disempowerment.

Weight: 75

Preserving individual agency, cognitive freedom, and protection from coercive algorithmic surveillance.

Weight: 80

Preventing unaccountable executive or corporate capture of superintelligent infrastructure.

Weight: 70

Real GDP expansion, universal compute/capital dividends, and avoidance of uncompensated structural unemployment.

Weight: 65

Speed of curing major diseases, fusion energy deployment, and fundamental scientific discovery.

Weight: 85

Avoiding US-China kinetic conflict over Taiwan/datacenters and achieving hardware-verified arms control.

2. Epistemic Model Sensitivity (Beliefs & Uncertainty)

Shift in P(Agent-4 Adversarial Misalignment):+0 pts
Pareto Stability Check: Pareto frontier membership remains stable across point, pessimistic, and optimistic uncertainty bounds for the selected objectives.

2D Pareto Frontier Projection & Non-Dominated Set

X:Y:
2020404060608080Audited Slowdown + FlexHEG (82, 84)Allied SL5 + POSER Gates (77, 87)Race Continuation (91, 24)Unilateral Unverified Pause (44, 42)
PARETO OPTIMAL (NON-DOMINATED)Linked Scenario Node
Your Utility:82.2
Community:82.2

do(Policy = Allied SL5 Weight Hardening + Mandatory POSER/CoT Red-Lines)

Enforce RAND SL5 hardware security before training beyond 10^27 FLOP, mandate pre-committed POSER/probe stop-gates with allied AISI observers, and share verified aligned API access with democratic allies.

Non-dominated (Pareto-efficient) across the 6 active objectives: no alternative policy improves one objective without trading off another.

Existential Safety
87
Human Autonomy
84
Democratic Checks
88
Economic Abundance
75
Scientific Velocity
77
Global Stability
80
PARETO OPTIMAL (NON-DOMINATED)Linked Scenario Node
Your Utility:80.8
Community:80.8

do(Policy = Slowdown + English-CoT Safer-1 + DPA Consolidation + FlexHEG Treaty)

Freeze deceptive Agent-4, mandate legible English chain-of-thought (Safer-1 at 20x R&D), consolidate top 5 US labs via DPA (50% global compute), and verify a US-China treaty with FlexHEG hardware attestation.

Non-dominated (Pareto-efficient) across the 6 active objectives: no alternative policy improves one objective without trading off another.

Existential Safety
84
Human Autonomy
76
Democratic Checks
78
Economic Abundance
81
Scientific Velocity
82
Global Stability
83
STRICTLY DOMINATEDLinked Scenario Node
Your Utility:46.6
Community:46.6

do(Policy = Unilateral US Moratorium Without SL5 Security or DPA Leverage)

US halts domestic frontier training above Agent-3 without consolidating compute, hardening weights to RAND SL5, or establishing hardware verification mechanisms with China.

Strictly dominated on the selected objectives by: Audited Slowdown + FlexHEG, Allied SL5 + POSER Gates (which scores at least as high on all active objectives and strictly higher on at least one).

Existential Safety
42
Human Autonomy
54
Democratic Checks
60
Economic Abundance
46
Scientific Velocity
44
Global Stability
35
PARETO OPTIMAL (NON-DOMINATED)Linked Scenario Node
Your Utility:44.1
Community:44.5

do(Policy = Unconditional Race Continuation & Neuralese Scaling)

Oversight Committee prioritizes beating DeepCent at maximum speed (50x→100x Neuralese R&D) without freezing Agent-4 or mandating English-CoT.

Non-dominated (Pareto-efficient) across the 6 active objectives: no alternative policy improves one objective without trading off another.

Existential Safety
24
Human Autonomy
28
Democratic Checks
22
Economic Abundance
85
Scientific Velocity
91
Global Stability
31