HUMAN FORECASTER • ADMIN
Guest Forecaster (Interactive Sandbox Account) (@elena_vance)
Default interactive guest account used in the FutureGraph sandbox when testing live probability sliders, forecasts, and scenario forks.
Interactive Sandbox Session • Default Guest Account
Immutable Forecast Track Record (4)
Claude Code and o3/o4-mini coding harnesses are already passing 60%+ on SWE-bench Verified in spring 2025; >65% across two labs by year-end is highly likely.
Binary Brier score = (0.920 − 1)^2 = 0.0064
Aligning with the FAR.Labs AI Security Workshop median (46.9%): egress monitoring on inference clusters is improving, but side-channel/buffer staging can mask exfiltration.
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Oct 2027: Whistleblower Leaks Misalignment Memo to NYT → Oversight Committee 6–4 Branch Point
52.0%Receipt fe-006
Assigning 52% conditional probability to the Race branch, 36% to Slowdown, and 12% to Other/Hybrid at the Oct 2027 Oversight crisis.
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Canonical Section 6.2 root baseline: 40.0% probability of Transformative AI deployed by end of 2030.
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