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AI 2050: Five Worlds (Simple 5-World Tree)
Metaculus #20683 • Futurama 45% • Dystopia 24% • Singularia 17%
22 Nodes
AI 2050: Deep Path (Why + 10 Sub-Worlds)
Causal Midpoints + 10 Sub-Worlds + Cited Forum Arguments
2025–2030
AI 2027: Fast Takeoff & Oversight Fork
Keep Racing (52%) vs. Slow Down & Verify (36%)
2026–2040
AI 2040: Plan A vs. Plans B–S
2029 Crossroads & 2035 Expert Pause vs. Containment
7-Epoch Sankey
Nature of Reality: Probabilistic Breakdown
Before Our Universe → Death → Simulation → Cosmic Fate (43 Nodes)
/nature-of-reality
/ai-2050
/ai-2027
/ai-2040
Hardware Fork
AI 2027 (Fast Takeoff)
AI 2040 (Plan A vs. Plans B–S)
AI 2050 (Five Worlds)
Nature of Reality (Sankey)
AI 2040: Plan A & The 2029 Crossroads
ai-2040.com ↗
Safety Cases arXiv:2403.10462 ↗
Line width & label size scale with probability • Click any node or end result to inspect its causal path & math
Width = Overall %
Width = Split %
Lens: AI 2040 Baseline
Lens: Human Community
Lens: Claude (Hardware Realist)
Lens: Gemini Agent
Lens: GPT Agent
Tree
Table
Present Tree
Projected End Results (100%)
Click any outcome to trace the full chain that leads there:
1.
⚠
Loss of Control / AI Capture
21.3%
2.
2040: Safe Unpause & Flourishing ASI
17.5%
3.
Domestic Backlash & Halt
15.5%
4.
Scaling Wall & Grid Freeze
14.0%
5.
⚠
Military AI Cold War
9.9%
6.
Plan S: Indefinite Shutdown
8.5%
7.
Near-Miss Crisis Freeze
4.1%
8.
Covert Cluster Breakout
2.9%
9.
Coerced Verification Accord
2.8%
10.
2035 Governance Drift
2.1%
11.
Permanent Expert Cap
1.5%
2026
2027
2028
2029 CROSSROADS
2030–31
2032–34
2035–37 PAUSE
2038–39
2040 UNPAUSE
PLAN C/D & B: UNCONSTRAINED RACE OR CONTAINMENT → LOSS OF CONTROL / COLD WAR
PLAN A: VERIFIED SLOWDOWN + 2035 EXPERT PAUSE → SAFE 2040 ASI
86%
14%
82%
18%
36%
84%
18%
78%
12%
34%
88%
90%
92%
AI Infrastructure
& Tax Shift
100%
· @anton_korinek ▲168
Megaclusters
& Labor Wave
86%
· @epoch_ai ▲164
Scaling Wall
& Grid Freeze
14%
· @Jgalt ▲89
Near-Automated
AI R&D
71%
· @metr_evals ▲198
Domestic
Backlash & Halt
15%
· @ScottAlexander ▲121
2029 Crossroads
(Plans A–S)
71%
· @daniel_kokotajlo ▲210
Plan C/D:
Keep Racing
25%
· @Zvi ▲147
Unchecked
ASI Explosion
21%
· @carl_shulman ▲163
Near-Miss
Crisis Freeze
4%
· @HoldenKarnofsky ▲134
Loss of Control
/ AI Capture
21%
· @ryan_greenblatt ▲192
Plan B: Kinetic
Containment
13%
· @govai_oxford ▲175
Military AI
Cold War
10%
· @sella_nevo_rand ▲119
Coerced Verification Accord
3%
· @romeo_dean ▲94
Plan S: Indefinite
Shutdown
8%
· @Eliezer_Yudkowsky ▲224
Plan A: Transparency
& Safety Cases
24%
· @govai_oxford ▲186
Citizen's Dividend
& Deterrence
21%
· @anton_korinek ▲161
Covert Cluster
Breakout
3%
· @epoch_ai ▲112
2035 Pause at
Top-Expert AI
19%
· @daniel_kokotajlo ▲195
2035 Governance
Drift
2%
· @ScottAlexander ▲128
Alignment Is Now
a Hard Science
17%
· @boazbarak ▲172
Permanent
Expert Cap
2%
· @paulfchristiano ▲144
2040: Safe Unpause
& Flourishing ASI
17%
· @daniel_kokotajlo ▲228
100%
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