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AI 2050: Five Worlds (Simple 5-World Tree)
Metaculus #20683 • Futurama 45% • Dystopia 24% • Singularia 17%
22 Nodes
AI 2050: Deep Path (Why + 10 Sub-Worlds)
Causal Midpoints + 10 Sub-Worlds + Cited Forum Arguments
2025–2030
AI 2027: Fast Takeoff & Oversight Fork
Keep Racing (52%) vs. Slow Down & Verify (36%)
2026–2040
AI 2040: Plan A vs. Plans B–S
2029 Crossroads & 2035 Expert Pause vs. Containment
7-Epoch Sankey
Nature of Reality: Probabilistic Breakdown
Before Our Universe → Death → Simulation → Cosmic Fate (43 Nodes)
/nature-of-reality
/ai-2050
/ai-2027
/ai-2040
Hardware Fork
AI 2027 (Fast Takeoff)
AI 2040 (Plan A vs. Plans B–S)
AI 2050 (Five Worlds)
Nature of Reality (Sankey)
AI 2027 Branching Probability River
ai-2027.com ↗
METR arXiv:2503.14499 ↗
Line width & label size scale with probability • Click any node or end result to inspect its causal path & math
Width = Overall %
Width = Split %
Lens: AI 2027 Baseline
Lens: Human Community
Lens: Claude (Hardware Realist)
Lens: Gemini Agent
Lens: GPT Agent
Tree
Table
Present Tree
Projected End Results (100%)
Click any outcome to trace the full chain that leads there:
1.
R&D Plateaus at Human Level
28.2%
2.
⚠
AI Takeover / Extinction
18.0%
3.
Safe AI Abundance
12.6%
4.
Compute & Power Bottleneck
12.0%
5.
US Locks Down Weights Early
9.0%
6.
Partial Pause / Stalemate
5.5%
7.
Internal Alignment Holds
5.1%
8.
Deterrence Standoff
2.9%
9.
Emergency State Halt
2.9%
10.
Offshore Rivals Catch Up
2.0%
11.
US-Only Safe Enclave
1.9%
2025
2026
EARLY 2027
MID 2027
SEP 2027
OCT 2027 FORK
NOV 2027
2028
2029
2030
RACE PATH (UNCHECKED SCALING → AI TAKEOVER)
SLOWDOWN PATH (FREEZE + ALIGNED AI + VERIFIED TREATY)
88%
12%
68%
32%
85%
15%
90%
52%
88%
86%
12%
36%
88%
87%
Coding Agents
Launch
100%
· @metr_evals ▲215
AI Automates R&D
88%
· @ScottAlexander ▲165
Compute & Power
Bottleneck
12%
· @epoch_ai ▲178
Superhuman AI Coder
60%
· @daniel_kokotajlo ▲212
R&D Plateaus
at Human Level
28%
· @daron_acemoglu ▲240
China Steals
Weights
51%
· @sella_nevo_rand ▲196
US Locks Down
Weights Early
9%
· @sella_nevo_rand ▲151
AI Hides
Misaligned Goals
46%
· @evhub ▲268
Internal
Alignment Holds
5%
· @ryan_greenblatt ▲184
Oct 2027
Oversight Vote
46%
· @daniel_kokotajlo ▲231
Keep Racing
24%
· @Zvi ▲158
Robot Economy Boom
21%
· @carl_shulman ▲176
Emergency
State Halt
3%
· @anton_korinek ▲114
Fake US-China
AI Deal
18%
· @paulfchristiano ▲182
Deterrence Standoff
3%
· @HoldenKarnofsky ▲129
AI Takeover
/ Extinction
18%
· @Eliezer_Yudkowsky ▲219
Partial Pause
/ Stalemate
5%
· @Jgalt ▲88
Slow Down
& Freeze AI
16%
· @ScottAlexander ▲194
Transparent
Aligned AI
15%
· @ryan_greenblatt ▲167
Offshore Rivals
Catch Up
2%
· @govai_oxford ▲143
Verified
US-China Treaty
13%
· @govai_oxford ▲153
US-Only Safe
Enclave
2%
· @sella_nevo_rand ▲97
Safe AI Abundance
13%
· @anton_korinek ▲179
100%
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