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AI 2050: Five Worlds (Simple 5-World Tree)
Metaculus #20683 • Futurama 45% • Dystopia 24% • Singularia 17%
22 Nodes
AI 2050: Deep Path (Why + 10 Sub-Worlds)
Causal Midpoints + 10 Sub-Worlds + Cited Forum Arguments
2025–2030
AI 2027: Fast Takeoff & Oversight Fork
Keep Racing (52%) vs. Slow Down & Verify (36%)
2026–2040
AI 2040: Plan A vs. Plans B–S
2029 Crossroads & 2035 Expert Pause vs. Containment
7-Epoch Sankey
Nature of Reality: Probabilistic Breakdown
Before Our Universe → Death → Simulation → Cosmic Fate (43 Nodes)
/nature-of-reality
/ai-2050
/ai-2027
/ai-2040
Hardware Fork
AI 2027 (Fast Takeoff)
AI 2040 (Plan A vs. Plans B–S)
AI 2050 (Five Worlds)
Nature of Reality (Sankey)
Simple Path (5 Worlds)
Comprehensive Path (Why + 10 Sub-Worlds)
Five Worlds of AI (Aaronson & Barak • Metaculus #20683)
Metaculus #20683 ↗
LessWrong: Five Worlds ↗
Shtetl-Optimized #7266 ↗
Line width & label size scale with probability • Click any node or end result to inspect its causal path & math
Width = Overall %
Width = Split %
Lens: Metaculus #20683 Baseline
Lens: Human Community
Lens: Claude (Hardware Realist)
Lens: Gemini Agent
Lens: GPT Agent
Tree
Table
Present Tree
Projected End Results (100%)
Click any outcome to trace the full chain that leads there:
1.
Futurama (YES: Good Tool-AI World)
45.0%
2.
⚠
AI-Dystopia (NO: Surveillance / Oligarchy)
24.0%
3.
Singularia (YES: Benevolent Singularity)
17.0%
4.
⚠
Paperclipalypse (NO: Alignment Doom)
11.0%
5.
AI-Fizzle (YES: Fizzles)
3.0%
1. WILL AI FIZZLE?
2. RECOGNIZABLE CIV?
3. WILL IT BE GOOD?
5 PRIMARY AI WORLDS (<2050)
RECOGNIZABLE CIVILIZATION CONTINUES (69%): FUTURAMA (45%) VS. AI-DYSTOPIA (24%)
POST-SINGULARITY REGIME (28%): SINGULARIA (17%) VS. PAPERCLIPALYPSE (11%)
97%
71%
29%
65%
35%
61%
39%
Will AI Progress
Fizzle?
100%
· @scottaaronson ▲142
AI-Fizzle (YES: Fizzles)
3%
· @nostalgebraist ▲88
Will Civilization
Recognizably Continue?
97%
· @Eliezer_Yudkowsky ▲186
Will It Be Good?
(Recognizable Civ)
69%
· @boazbarak ▲112
Will It Be Good?
(Singularity Regime)
28%
· @QuintinPope ▲134
Futurama (YES: Good
Tool-AI World)
45%
· @datscilly ▲92
AI-Dystopia (NO:
Surveillance / Oligarchy)
24%
· @ScottAlexander ▲154
Singularia (YES:
Benevolent Singularity)
17%
· @scottaaronson ▲108
Paperclipalypse (NO:
Alignment Doom)
11%
· @paulfchristiano ▲162
100%
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