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AI 2050: Five Worlds (Simple 5-World Tree)
Metaculus #20683 • Futurama 45% • Dystopia 24% • Singularia 17%
22 Nodes
AI 2050: Deep Path (Why + 10 Sub-Worlds)
Causal Midpoints + 10 Sub-Worlds + Cited Forum Arguments
2025–2030
AI 2027: Fast Takeoff & Oversight Fork
Keep Racing (52%) vs. Slow Down & Verify (36%)
2026–2040
AI 2040: Plan A vs. Plans B–S
2029 Crossroads & 2035 Expert Pause vs. Containment
7-Epoch Sankey
Nature of Reality: Probabilistic Breakdown
Before Our Universe → Death → Simulation → Cosmic Fate (43 Nodes)
/nature-of-reality
/ai-2050
/ai-2027
/ai-2040
Hardware Fork
Worldview Lens:
Author Baseline
Crowd Aggregate
N=412
Physicalist
Simulationist
Idealist / Mind
Theistic
Max-Entropy
Gradient Sankey
7-Epoch Flow & Spine
All 43 Nodes & 119 Splits
Full Sankey
Canvas: Flourish Silk
Present Worldview
Submit to Crowd Forecast
Nature of Reality: A Probabilistic Breakdown — 7-Epoch Interactive Gradient Sankey Diagram across 43 Cosmological and Consciousness Hypotheses
I. ONTOLOGICAL ORIGIN
What Existed Before Our Universe?
Primordial substrate or boundary condition
II. COSMOGENESIS
How Did Our Universe Arise?
Physical, computational, or metaphysical g
III. CONSCIOUS FATE
What Happens When We Die?
Subjective boundary condition at biologica
IV. CONTINUATION & SIM MODE
Post-Mortem / Waking Architecture
Form of non-material continuation or base-
V. SIMULATION PURPOSE
Nature of Simulated Experience
Experiential & moral implications if wakin
VI. COSMIC TRAJECTORY
Macro-Cosmic Dynamics
Long-range expansion vs. contraction of ph
VII. ULTIMATE COSMIC FATE
How Does Our Universe End?
Terminal thermodynamic, dynamical, or comp
Multiverse
(43.4%)
Pre-existing Universe
(30.0%)
'Nothingness'
(21.6%)
Incomprehensible Origin
(5.0%)
Eternal Inflation
(26.0%)
Cyclic Models
(6.5%)
Brane Collisions
(6.5%)
Holographic Multiverse
(2.2%)
Incomprehensible (Mechanism)
(2.2%)
Ancestor Simulation
(13.5%)
Alien Simulation
(7.5%)
Singularity (within Parent Universe)
(7.5%)
Quantum Fluct. (Parent)
(1.5%)
Quantum Vacuum Fluctuation
(16.6%)
Ex Nihilo Divine Creation
(3.8%)
Uncaused/Other
(1.3%)
Eternal Non-existence
(73.0%)
Non-material Continuation
(9.0%)
Simulated afterlife
(1.7%)
Wake up from simulation
(12.0%)
Incomprehensible/yet to be conceived
(4.3%)
Return to a Universal Consciousness
(7.2%)
Afterlife (Heaven, Hell, Unknown)
(1.2%)
Reincarnation
(1.2%)
Parallel Universe Continuation
(1.0%)
Passive Simulation
(6.0%)
Agentic Simulation
(6.0%)
Re-living Own Past Life
(2.0%)
Living Imaginary / Others' Lives
(3.0%)
Adventitious Simulated Evolution
(1.0%)
Choices Have Moral Weight in Base Reality
(4.0%)
Agency for Research / Entertainment
(2.0%)
Continued Expansion of Universe
(72.5%)
Eventual Contraction of Universe
(8.9%)
Heat Death (Big Freeze)
(68.5%)
Vacuum Decay
(4.0%)
Big Rip
(4.0%)
Big Bounce (Cyclic)
(3.0%)
Big Crunch
(2.0%)
Plug pulled on Simulation
(11.1%)
Incomprehensible Ending
(6.0%)
Creator Ends or Starts Over
(0.8%)
Finished in Fluffer
(0.7%)
I. Origin Priors:
Multiverse
43.4%
Pre-existing Universe
30.0%
'Nothingness'
21.6%
Incomprehensible Origin
5.0%
100%
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