Section 6.2 Benchmark • End of 2030 (Benchmark)Operationalized Benchmark QuestionTrack: operationalized
Macro Benchmark Root: Transformative AI (TAI) Deployed by End of 2030 (40.0%)
Canonical conditional probability network root benchmark (Spec Section 6.2): P(Transformative AI by 2030) = 40.0%. Adjust this node to 60% in the Live Assumption Simulator to verify exact 21.2% → 25.8% propagation.
This root benchmark node operationalizes Transformative AI (TAI) by 2030 with a baseline prior of 40.0% (0.40).
Try dragging this node's assumption slider from 40% to 60% in the Live Assumption Simulator:
• Its child node Structural Unemployment > 12% by 2033 has fixed conditionals P(Unemp | TAI) = 0.35 and P(Unemp | ¬TAI) = 0.12.
• By the Law of Total Probability, its implied marginal probability automatically shifts from 21.2% (0.40 × 0.35 + 0.60 × 0.12) to 25.8% (0.60 × 0.35 + 0.40 × 0.12).
Will Transformative AI (capable of accelerating global scientific & economic productivity ≥3x) be deployed by December 31, 2030?
Resolution Criteria: Canonical Spec Section 6.2 root benchmark question. Resolves YES if global real GDP growth or verified frontier R&D productivity exceeds 3x historical baseline due to autonomous AI systems before 2031.
Source: World Bank / IMF / Epoch AI Macro Index•Adjudicator: FutureGraph Resolution Committee
Decomposing P(TAI by 2030) = 40% into Software Takeoff vs. Physical Infrastructure Horizons
A 40% baseline prior balances the rapid doubling of agent task horizons (METR 7-month trend) against the 3–5 year lead times required for multi-gigawatt power interconnects, EUV lithography capacity, and enterprise organizational absorption.