Chapter 10 • May 2027Documented Baseline Prob (32.8%)Track: spine
May 2027: National Security Briefing & DoD Clearances (32.8% SL5 Poll)
President and NSC are briefed on Agent-3; expedited DOD clearances sidelining foreign nationals and safety whistleblowers reduce insider threat to 1 spy; 32.8% poll chance of SL5 within 6 months.
OpenBrain briefs the President that superintelligence is months away. The Department of Defense mandates expedited security clearances for everyone with model access, removing foreign nationals and suspected 'AI safety sympathizers' deemed leak risks. This neutralizes all but one deep-cover Chinese spy inside OpenBrain.
Documented Security Supplement Probability: The FAR.Labs AI Security Workshop poll found a 32.8% median probability that the US government bolsters frontier lab security to RAND SL5 within 6 months after a state-actor steals a Cybench-100% capable AI.
Verification Note: Contains documented Security Supplement probability: 32.8% FAR.Labs poll median for reaching RAND SL5 within 6 months of theft.
Conditional on a state actor stealing a Cybench-100% frontier AI model, will the US government bolster lab weight security to RAND SL5 within 6 months? (FAR.Labs Poll: 32.8%)
Resolution Criteria: Operationalizes the FAR.Labs AI Security Workshop survey question (32.8% documented median).
Early DoD/NSA intervention to lock frontier weights into air-gapped SL4/SL5 enclaves BEFORE foreign exfiltration is the highest-leverage geopolitical off-ramp (15%).
If US national security principals mandate RAND SL4/SL5 weight security and insider counterintelligence sweeps in early 2027—prior to CCP exfiltration of Agent-2—the US preserves a 9–12 month algorithmic and compute lead, removing the acute 2-month race panic that drives the October 2027 crisis.