2035–2037 Plan A • 2035–2037Original AI 2040 Scenario MilestoneTrack: slowdown
2035–2037 (Plan A): Hard Pause at Top-Expert AI, Life After Work & Arrival of Truth
Humanity enforces a 5-year capability freeze right at Top-Human-Expert level (2035–2040). Dozens of global firms catch up while society navigates Life After Work (2036) and The Arrival of Truth on Earth (2037).
Covers three landmark chapters of AI 2040:
• 2035 (Pause at Top Expert AI): Humanity intentionally hits the brakes, capping AI capabilities right at the top-human-expert tier until 2040. Because no single lab can race ahead into superintelligence, dozens of companies and nations catch up to the frontier, preventing monopoly lock-in.
• 2036 (Life After Work): With the Citizen's Dividend and expert-level AI abundance, society adapts structurally and culturally to a post-labor economy.
• 2037 (The Apocalyptic Arrival of Truth on Earth): Expert-level epistemic verification tools expose institutional corruption, eradicate mass misinformation, and transform global governance transparency.
Verification Note: Covers the 2035 ('Pause at Top Expert AI'), 2036 ('Life After Work'), and 2037 ('The Apocalyptic Arrival of Truth on Earth') chapters of ai-2040.com.
Conditional on 2034 compute deterrence, will humanity successfully hold the 2035–2040 Pause at Top-Expert AI?
Resolution Criteria: Resolves YES if frontier capability scaling is capped at the human-expert ceiling from 2035 through 2039 while multipolar access expands.
Source: AI 2040 Framework (ai-2040.com) & Public Benchmarks•Adjudicator: FutureGraph Adjudication Committee
The 2035 Calibrated Pause at 'Top-Expert AI' (86%): Stopping frontier capability scaling at top human-scientist parity so millions of bounded expert instances can solve alignment safely.
Rather than pausing too early (when AI is too weak to help solve mechanistic interpretability) or too late (when superintelligent schemers can outsmart human auditors), Plan A pauses in 2035 at Top-Expert AI—deploying millions of transparent, non-self-improving expert assistants to turn alignment into a hard science.